2025 Fantasy Baseball: Stud or sleeper at starting pitcher, a strategy guide for how to draft each position

After years of so much pitching turmoil, the sudden surplus is staggering

Remember The Glob? That's the term I used to describe the talent distribution at starting pitcher a year ago: just a couple dozen difference-makers and then an indiscernible mass of mediocrity. Once you entered The Glob, there was no point in playing favorites. You could only hope you had the bulk of your pitching staff assembled already.

Well, I'm here to tell you The Glob is no more. It was a one-year phenomenon -- full of sound and fury, signifying nothing -- and now the pendulum has swung back the other way. It's swung back so hard, in fact, that we're basically working with the reciprocal now -- a Good Glob, you might even say.

Loosely, I've described it as 15-50 in my rankings. It's actually more like 15-47, and by the time you read this, injuries may have reduced the range further. But the point is that it's again a large, indistinguishable mass, only this time comprised of pitchers that are, you know, talented. Not all of them will pan out, of course -- such is the nature of pitching -- but from where things stand now, their outlooks are so similar that I hesitate even to rank them. What looks right to me one day looks upside-down to me the next. Truth is I only do it because they make me.

• Position Strategies: C | 1B | 2B | 3B | SS | OF | SP | RP
• Position Previews: C | 1B | 2B | 3B | SS | OF | SP | RP
• Position Tiers (v. 2.0): C | 1B | 2B | 3B | SS | OF | SP | RP

So wait, you're saying that entire span of pitchers, roughly 15 through 50 in your rankings, is interchangeable? Yeah, pretty much. If you really pin me down, I could divide it into two groups -- those who could potentially suffice as aces and those who likely won't -- and if you check out my starting pitcher tiers, you'll see I've marked that distinction with "start of good glob" and "end of good glob". But it's a fine line that I'd just as soon ignore on Draft Day. I mean, Bailey Ober is in one group and Joe Ryan in the other, yet they both profile as fly-ball pitchers with elite control and above-average strikeout potential -- and for the same team, no less. I'm splitting hairs between the two, yet they're 11 spots apart in my rankings.

The middle tier at this position is of such depth, such quality and, to put a finer point on it, such redundancy that I don't know why I'd invest in anyone high-end. Yet people do. The high-end pitcher is still better, they say, and that gives them an advantage. Yeah, maybe. But while the drop-off within the pitcher ranks is gradual, the drop-off within the hitter ranks is abrupt. (Remember me saying how bad every infield position is?) Plus, pitchers get hurt more, raising the possibility that the high-end investment turns out to be a bust. So if a position is riskier at the top and more forgiving in the middle, gee, what should you do?

In an ideal world, I'd take nothing but hitters with my first five or six picks, then I'd try scooping up as many of those Good Glob pitchers as I could, hopefully at least five but sometimes as many as six or seven. That's not to say I'd never deviate for a hitter, but I'd be feeling some urgency to fill out my pitching staff at that point. To me, casting a wide net among those mostly alike options is preferable to staking my whole season to an ace or two and then trying to patch up the rest of my lineup with inferior hitters. Sometimes I've even waited until Round 8 to take my first pitcher (in a shallower league, of course) and was happy with the result.

Of course, I don't live in an ideal world, so the approach I take depends somewhat on the way the draft is playing out. I still need good pitching, after all, and if I end up with only a couple top-50 options because I'm committed to a certain plan, well, that's a problem. But there's so much good to be found so deep into the pitcher rankings this year that I think you'd be foolish not to take advantage, particularly with so many of the hitter positions turning sour so quickly.

Generally regarded as aces

	2025 ADP	2024 PPG	2024 ERA	2024 K/9
Paul Skenes PIT SP	12	18.70	1.96	11.5
Tarik Skubal DET SP	14	20.16	2.39	10.7
Zack Wheeler PHI SP	20	19.09	2.56	10.1
Logan Gilbert SEA SP	30	16.39	3.23	9.5
Corbin Burnes ARI SP	33	16.30	2.92	8.4
Chris Sale ATL SP	35	19.85	2.38	11.4
Garrett Crochet BOS RP	36	10.58	3.58	12.9
Cole Ragans KC RP	39	15.05	3.14	10.8
Dylan Cease SD SP	41	14.97	3.47	10.7
Blake Snell LAD SP	45	14.43	3.12	12.6

As you can see from their ADP, only three starting pitchers are going in the first two rounds, which means the drafting public is generally in line with my wait-for-it approach. They may not take it as far as I do, but then again, they may take it further with certain pitchers.

See, you might think I'd never draft any of these pitchers based on the strategy I laid out above. But they are of a higher caliber than what follows, and I'm not one to pass up a good deal. The most troublesome in the mind of drafters -- and, therefore, the most likely to fall -- are Corbin Burnes, Chris Sale and Blake Snell. I'll get to Snell in a minute, because he's a little troublesome for me as well, but if either Burnes or Sale makes it to Round 5 or even late in Round 4 -- say, outside of the top 45 players -- I'm taking him. I've seen it happen more than once.

In Burnes' case, it's likely because he struck out less than a batter per inning for the first time as a starter last year, continuing a three-year decline in that most critical measurement. But we do have an explanation for it and even got to see a brief reversal. The Baltimore Banner reported late in September that he was throwing his cutter too hard most of the year, not allowing it to cut properly. Hitters only caught on in August, finally forcing him to investigate, and with a quick adjustment, he was back to dominating in September.

The concern for Sale is a little more obvious. The reigning NL Cy Young winner missed most of the previous four years due to injury. But apart from the Tommy John surgery that kicked it off, most of injuries were fluky in nature, not even having to do with baseball in some cases, so I wouldn't count it as a given he'll get injured again. It's not any more likely for him than for Garrett Crochet, anyway (check out his injury history), and you don't see nearly as many drafters backing down from him.

As for Snell ... yeah, he'll probably need to slip to Round 6 for me to take him, which he sometimes does. His 2.82 ERA, 1.16 WHIP and 12.0 K/9 over the past three years are certainly ace-like, which is why I count him among them, but he has a pronounced injury history himself and isn't always lights-out when healthy. In fact, in each of the past four years, he's been downright unusable for the first couple months before turning into an absolute wrecking ball thereafter. It can be frustrating.

Could also perform like aces

	2025 ADP	2024 PPG	2024 ERA	2024 K/9
George Kirby SEA SP	44	14.53	3.53	8.4
Gerrit Cole NYY SP	49	14.15	3.41	9.4
Jacob deGrom TEX SP	52	8.00	1.69	11.8
Yoshinobu Yamamoto LAD SP	56	13.97	3.00	10.5
Michael King SD RP	58	14.15	2.95	10.4
Framber Valdez HOU SP	59	17.02	2.91	8.6
Pablo Lopez MIN SP	64	14.09	4.08	9.6
Shota Imanaga CHC RP	66	17.86	2.91	9.0
Aaron Nola PHI SP	70	14.96	3.57	8.9
Bryce Miller SEA SP	77	15.69	2.94	8.5
Bailey Ober MIN SP	83	14.86	3.98	9.6
Max Fried NYY SP	84	14.07	3.25	8.6
Luis Castillo SEA SP	86	13.45	3.64	9.0
Logan Webb SF SP	87	14.18	3.47	7.6
Hunter Greene CIN SP	89	15.17	2.75	10.1
Tyler Glasnow LAD SP	92	17.36	3.49	11.3
Spencer Strider ATL SP	126	18.02^	3.86^	13.6^
Shohei Ohtani LAD DH	130	15.80^	3.14^	11.4^

^2023 stats

I've structured this article a little differently from my tiers, such that some of these pitchers are actually separate from the Good Glob. Gerrit Cole, George Kirby, Michael King and Framber Valdez are part of a near-elite tier, and as you can see from their ADPs, it's unlikely I'll be drafting any of them. Sometimes King and Valdez last beyond the high-end hitters I'm looking to load up on, giving me at least a chance, but it's rare.

But wait, didn't I just skip past Jacob deGrom and Yoshinobu Yamamoto? Yeah, now you're seeing how much room there is for disagreement within this range of the pitcher rankings and why I'm inclined just to lump them all together. Simply put, I think they're overrated, most egregiously deGrom, a 36-year-old coming back from Tommy John surgery who hasn't thrown even 100 innings in a season since 2019. The injuries haven't been of the fluky Chris Sale variety either, but rather an endless procession of elbow, forearm and shoulder issues. His body simply can't hold up to the velocity he generates. Volume is my main concern for Yamamoto as well. He never had health issues before coming to the States last year, but even when healthy, the Dodgers were careful with his workload. I imagine it'll continue this year given their rotation surplus and the fact that they're shoo-ins for the playoffs.

Pablo Lopez, Aaron Nola, Max Fried, Luis Castillo and Logan Webb are a big reason why I say the Good Glob contains pitchers who could suffice as aces. We've mostly regarded them as aces over the years, in fact, and them being pushed out this year is mostly due to surplus. In those instances when I wait until Round 8 to take my first pitcher, it's typically somebody like Fried.

I'm also inclined to group Shota Imanaga, Bryce Miller and Bailey Ober together because I think each offers basically the same profile (fly-ball pitcher, elite control, above-average strikeout ability), with the differences in performance mostly amounting to happenstance. Give me the one who's going latest, then (or give me multiple, whatever).

Finally, there are the aces returning from injury, Strider and Ohtani, neither of whom figures to pitch for the first month. Granted, Ohtani's pitching only matters in those leagues where you can draft the pitcher version separately, but Strider deserves more attention given that he was the top pitcher drafted in Fantasy last year and remains a potential outlier for strikeouts. Because his elbow wasn't reconstructed, just kind of fortified after having a bone spur removed, I'm hopeful for a complete recovery and am happy to wait a month for him at this cost.

Show many ace-like qualities

	2025 ADP	2024 PPG	2024 ERA	2024 K/9
Spencer Schwellenbach ATL SP	91	14.79	3.35	9.2
Tanner Bibee CLE SP	93	13.73	3.47	9.7
Freddy Peralta MIL SP	95	12.31	3.68	10.4
Roki Sasaki LAD SP	99	-----	2.35#	10.5#
Grayson Rodriguez BAL SP	104	15.95	3.86	10.0
Zac Gallen ARI SP	107	13.39	3.65	9.5
Hunter Brown HOU SP	108	12.95	3.49	9.5
Sonny Gray STL SP	111	15.38	3.84	11.0
Joe Ryan MIN SP	112	14.76	3.60	9.8
Shane McClanahan TB SP	123	15.74^	3.29^	9.5^
Justin Steele CHC SP	124	13.19	3.07	9.0
Carlos Rodon NYY SP	128	13.64	3.96	10.0
Kodai Senga NYM SP	129	14.97^	2.98^	10.9^
Jack Flaherty DET SP	135	16.07	3.17	10.8
Bryan Woo SEA SP	137	15.52	2.89	7.5
Jared Jones PIT SP	142	11.82	4.14	9.8
Seth Lugo KC SP	147	16.38	3.00	7.9
Reynaldo Lopez ATL RP	149	14.31	1.99	9.8
Sean Manaea NYM RP	169	14.38	3.47	9.1

^2023 stats
#NPB stats

This especially large group marks the end of the Good Glob -- i.e., the end of that 15-50ish range in my starting pitcher rankings -- and by the time this list is depleted, I would hope to have the bulk of my pitching staff assembled already. I've found it's extremely easy to do in a 12-team league but not so easy in a 15-teamer, where if I'm going to sacrifice anything, it's more likely pitching than hitting (there are still worthy options beyond the Good Glob, after all).

But yeah, any of these pitchers has a chance to be a genuine standout still. Freddy Peralta, Zac Gallen and Sonny Gray are well-worn pitching assets and more affordable than ever this year, given the pitching surplus. The upside plays would be Spencer Schwellenbach, Roki Sasaki, Grayson Rodriguez and Shane McClanahan, but you're accepting more risk by selecting them. The one with the most pronounced risk is McClahanan, who's coming back from a second Tommy John surgery. You remember how that went for Walker Buehler last year. A second Tommy John surgery can be just as successful as the first, but based on the limited cases we've seen so far, it's basically a coin flip.

The pitchers I'm most likely to target from this group depend largely on what categories I need. If it's WHIP, I'll gravitate more toward control pitchers like Schwellenbach, Tanner Bibee, Joe Ryan, Justin Steele and Bryan Woo. If it strikeouts, I'm looking more toward Peralta, Rodon and Senga. If I want volume, particularly in the case of a points league, then I might go after Gallen or Seth Lugo. Speaking of Lugo, he forms an oddball trio here with Reynaldo Lopez and Sean Manaea, all three of them being veterans coming off a career season. The only one who I think could realistically sustain last year's numbers is Manaea, but I'd also be OK drafting Lugo or Lopez at cost.

Taking everything into account, I'd say that the pitchers I'm most likely to draft from this group are Gray, Ryan, Manaea and especially Steele, who's probably the most underrated pitcher of all. His 3.07 ERA, 1.10 WHIP and 9.0 K/9 last year was virtually identical to his 3.06 ERA, 1.17 WHIP and 9.1 K/9 two years ago, but you wouldn't know it by the way he's being drafted.

Also fine

	2025 ADP	2024 PPG	2024 ERA	2024 K/9
Kevin Gausman TOR SP	140	13.39	3.83	8.1
Sandy Alcantara MIA SP	152	12.27^	4.14^	7.4^
Yusei Kikuchi LAA SP	157	12.09	4.05	10.6
Robbie Ray SF SP	162	10.50	4.70	12.6
Luis Gil NYY SP	166	13.53	3.50	10.2
Shane Baz TB SP	170	13.89	3.06	7.8
Ryan Pepiot TB RP	173	11.35	3.60	9.8
Brandon Pfaadt ARI SP	178	11.86	4.71	9.2
Cristopher Sanchez PHI SP	179	13.27	3.32	7.6
Zach Eflin BAL SP	182	13.14	3.59	7.3
Jose Berrios TOR SP	191	14.42	3.60	7.2
Nathan Eovaldi TEX SP	193	14.45	3.80	8.8
Ronel Blanco HOU RP	197	15.07	2.80	8.9
Tanner Houck BOS SP	207	13.37	3.12	7.8
Yu Darvish SD SP	219	13.31	3.31	8.6
Michael Wacha KC SP	251	13.78	3.35	7.8
Ranger Suarez PHI SP	257	13.24	3.46	8.7
Mitch Keller PIT SP	265	11.23	4.25	8.4
Chris Bassitt TOR SP	280	9.29	4.16	8.8
Kutter Crawford BOS SP	284	10.99	4.36	8.6
Nestor Cortes MIL SP	285	12.19	3.77	8.4
Luis Severino ATH SP	297	12.73	3.91	8.0
Nick Martinez CIN RP	354	8.05	3.10	7.3

^2023 stats

As these lists get longer and longer, my writing needs to get shorter and shorter, so I'll lead with this: None of these pitchers I'm particularly excited about drafting in Fantasy. They have their uses. You'll need to rely on some to fill out your staff, particularly in leagues 15 teams or deeper. But in shallower leagues such as 12-team Head-to-Head, the draft will end before they're all taken.

And yet they are, as the header suggests, fine, which again goes to show how deep this year's pitcher pool is. Many are well known to Fantasy Baseballers, in fact. Kevin Gausman and Yu Darvish are past their prime but still capable of making an impact. Sandy Alcantara and Robbie Ray are coming back from major injuries but have Cy Young credentials. Jose Berrios and Nathan Eovaldi have generally been regarded as more than fine, but are now merely fine because of the way the position has evolved. Luis Gil is the reigning AL Rookie of the Year, and Ronel Blanco and Tanner Houck also made major inroads last year. Ryan Pepiot would surely be in a higher category if I didn't view him as a bust candidate.

To highlight some of my favorites from this group, I'll begin with Kikuchi, who changed up his pitch mix after joining the Astros at the trade deadline, leading to big strikeout numbers. Ray is probably my favorite upside play here given the elite whiff rate and improved velocity during the seven starts he made last year. On the other end of the spectrum is Cristopher Sanchez, who's a little underwhelming for WHIP and strikeouts but makes for a nice stabilizer in wins and ERA. Finally, there's Nick Martinez, who's going by far the latest of this group but emerged as an elite control pitcher last year, making him a thrifty WHIP play. He was so good for the Reds down the stretch that they ended up giving him a qualifying offer, which is normally reserved for the top free agents.

The Sleepers

	2025 ADP	2024 PPG	2024 ERA	2024 K/9
Taj Bradley TB SP	200	11.48	4.11	10.0
Spencer Arrighetti HOU SP	208	8.64	4.53	10.6
Bowden Francis TOR RP	210	9.93	3.30	8.0
Brandon Woodruff MIL SP	213	19.46^	2.28^	9.9^
MacKenzie Gore WAS SP	214	9.80	3.90	9.8
Clarke Schmidt NYY SP	217	11.34	2.85	9.8
Nick Lodolo CIN SP	228	11.76	4.76	9.5
Nick Pivetta BOS SP	234	11.33	4.14	10.6
Walker Buehler BOS SP	235	4.81	5.38	7.7
Drew Rasmussen TB SP	242	15.44^	2.62^	9.5^
Jackson Jobe DET P	252	5.50	2.36*	9.4*
Gavin Williams CLE SP	253	6.22	4.86	9.4
Jesus Luzardo PHI SP	261	9.17	5.00	7.8
Jeffrey Springs ATH RP	272	9.50	3.27	10.1
Clay Holmes NYM RP	287	4.81	3.14	9.7
Reese Olson DET SP	293	10.07	3.52	8.1
Bubba Chandler PIT SP	300	-----	3.08*	11.1*
Kumar Rocker TEX SP	302	2.67	1.96*	13.5*
Matthew Boyd CHC SP	315	12.00	2.72	10.4
Andrew Painter PHI SP	320	-----	1.56†	13.5†
Max Scherzer TOR SP	325	9.22	3.95	8.3
Cody Bradford TEX RP	326	14.79	3.54	8.3
David Festa MIN SP	329	6.89	4.90	10.8
Lucas Giolito BOS SP	333	10.0^	4.88^	10.0^
Grant Holmes ATL RP	337	5.46	3.56	9.2
Bobby Miller LAD SP	355	3.08	8.52	8.4
Davidjohn Herz WAS SP	362	8.00	4.16	10.8
Edward Cabrera MIA SP	377	7.78	4.95	10.0
Dustin May LAD SP	397	15.00^	2.62^	6.4^
Quinn Mathews STL SP	401	-----	2.76*	12.7*
Ryne Nelson ARI SP	421	11.89	4.24	7.5
Reid Detmers LAA SP	433	6.38	6.70	11.2
Kris Bubic KC SP	454	2.94	2.67	11.6

*minor-league stats
^2023 stats
†2022 minor-league stats

What a big mess of names this is, nearly three dozen in all. It's staggering to think there could be so many "sleepers" still after all the names we've already churned through.

Spencer Arrighetti is a prime target for me. The overall numbers make him a nonstarter for some, but would you believe he had more double digit-strikeout efforts than either Tarik Skubal or Paul Skenes last year? His 2.72 ERA, 1.17 WHIP and 11.4 K/9 offer a glimpse of what's to come. Bowden Francis also did some legendary things down the stretch, relying on a new splitter to turn in four one-hit efforts (all seven innings or more) over a six-start span. I'm a little more skeptical of his success, but I'd invest a late-round pick just to see if it continues.

MacKenzie Gore, meanwhile, demonstrated much improved control over his final seven starts, putting together a 1.55 ERA, 0.91 WHIP and 10.0 K/9. I also like the prospect of Nick Pivetta playing in a pitcher's park for the first time and of Clay Holmes moving into the starting rotation, where his elite ground-ball skills should play better than in high-leverage relief. Jackson Jobe is considered the top pitching prospect in baseball (apart from Roki Sasaki, anyway) and is already penciled into a rotation spot, but you wouldn't know it from his ADP.

Those are my favorites from this group, but you could make an upside case for any of them. I would like to direct special attention to prospects Bubba Chandler, Kumar Rocker and Quinn Mathews since it's unlikely (not impossible, but unlikely) they'll have a job right away. Andrew Painter certainly won't.

Low-end, but useful

	2025 ADP	2024 PPG	2024 ERA	2024 K/9
Merrill Kelly ARI SP	274	13.58	4.03	7.7
Tomoyuki Sugano BAL SP	279	-----	1.67#	6.4#
Erick Fedde STL SP	286	12.58	3.30	7.8
Tobias Myers MIL RP	291	11.80	3.00	8.3
Brayan Bello BOS SP	292	11.28	4.49	8.5
Brady Singer CIN SP	303	10.88	3.71	8.5
Jameson Taillon CHC SP	304	14.38	3.27	6.8
Kyle Harrison SF SP	328	9.83	4.56	8.5
David Peterson NYM SP	330	14.41	2.90	7.5
Frankie Montas NYM RP	332	8.47	4.84	8.8
Charlie Morton BAL SP	339	10.25	4.19	9.1
Justin Verlander SF SP	340	8.53	5.48	7.4
Eduardo Rodriguez ARI SP	364	7.35	5.04	8.5
Jose Soriano LAA RP	376	10.61	3.42	7.7
Andrew Abbott CIN SP	380	11.20	3.72	7.4
Dean Kremer BAL SP	386	10.85	4.09	8.5
Aaron Civale MIL SP	428	9.63	4.36	8.3
Zack Littell TB SP	432	10.78	3.63	8.1
Jake Irvin WAS SP	438	11.15	4.41	7.5
Ryan Weathers MIA SP	440	11.25	3.63	8.3
JP Sears ATH SP	446	10.58	4.38	6.8
Tyler Mahle TEX SP	458	4.00	4.97	7.1
Andre Pallante STL RP	470	8.17	3.78	7.0
Osvaldo Bido ATH SP	492	9.59	3.41	9.0
Mike Soroka WAS SP	567	3.16	4.75	9.5

#NPB stats

So I can't in all honesty muster much enthusiasm for any of these pitchers, but I didn't want to end the article without at least listing them off since they could be halfway useful -- and perhaps even integral in the deepest of leagues.

I do wish to note a couple things, though. The first is that Jose Soriano was one of the hardest throwers and best ground-ball generators among starting pitchers last year, so it's possible I'm not giving his upside enough credit here. The second is that Mike Soroka may have unlocked some supercharged bat-missing version of himself down the stretch for the White Sox last season, putting together a 1.95 ERA, 0.94 WHIP and 15.3 K/9 in his final 15 appearances. He was working in relief, not as a starter, but the key seemed to be throwing his slider upward of 40 percent of the time. With the Nationals giving him a chance to start again, I do consider him a sleeper of sorts.