It may be considered a fool's errand to try and predict even a group of players from which the 2024 Open Championship winner will emerge given how wide open this golf tournament seems to be each year. However, that is exactly what we are going to attempt to do today as the 152nd Open gets underway on Thursday at Royal Troon in Scotland.
Not everyone in the massive field can win the golf tournament, of course. There are past champions like John Daly and Todd Hamilton whose chances are as close to 0.0% as they can possibly be. There are other amateurs like Gordon Sargent and Calum Scott who, while they have a better shot than Daly and Hamilton, will not win the Claret Jug, either.
As a fan, one can start to narrow the field down. It's difficult, for example, to see 50 or 70 golfers beating Scottie Scheffler this week. He's finished outside the top 31 in a tournament just one time in his last 25 starts worldwide. Is that going to happen again at Royal Troon? I'm dubious. So, who are the players you believe can beat him?
Here are nine (including Scheffler) that will be the group that ultimately includes the eventual Open champion.
| 1 | |
| I don't know whether McIlroy is the most likely winner, but he is arguably the best Open player in this field. Only Jordan Spieth -- playing truly poor golf right now -- has been better at Opens over the last 10 years. No one has more top 10s at major championships -- without a win -- since 2014 than McIlroy. The biggest reason to not pick McIlroy to win at this point is because of his mini breakdown at the end of the U.S. Open. His mental and emotional state was fragile in that moment, but that is not something that will plague him throughout the week. You can bet that he will get into contention, and at some point, at least look like he has a real chance to win this tournament. Odds: 17/2 | |
| 2 | |
| The 2021 Open champion could be described as the best player in the world this year without a victory. Morikawa has been awesome all season and rolls into Troon with nine (!) consecutive top 16s. He was solid again last week at The Renaissance Club with a T4 finish. And while there is mild concern over his bizarre Open resume -- two missed cuts and a victory -- he's playing too well to expect anything other than a win this week. Odds: 14-1 | |
| 3 | |
| How quickly we (I) forget. Scheffler has not played anywhere since winning the Travelers Championship the week after the U.S. Open at Pinehurst No. 2, so perhaps we have forgotten just how elite he has been. Here's one to remind you: Take out that U.S. Open, and Scheffler has lost to nine golfers since March 1. Nine. Total. It has truly been one of the great seasons in modern golf history, and Scheffler is four rounds away from making that one of the great seasons in all of golf history. Odds: 5-1 | |
| 4 | |
| His only hiccup this year was a missed cut at the PGA Championship in May. Other than that, it's been nothing but tremendous play for the No. 4 player in the world. He has two top 12s in three career major starts, and while this is his first Open, he looked pretty great for about 63 holes last week at the Scottish Open where he led until Robert MacIntyre got him at the end. Odds: 20-1 | |
| 5 | |
| It almost seems like that because Schauffele won the PGA Championship, we have forgotten what a menace he is at majors. Like, "Oh, he got his one major and that's it." Except that might not be it, and it might be Schauffele -- not Scheffler -- who is in the middle of an all-time historically good major season. Both Schauffele and the next player on this list rank ahead of Scheffler in aggregate major score so far this season. Odds: 12-1 | |
| 6 | |
| It's been an amazing season for DeChambeau, who has clearly made a leap in his major career. However, his history at Opens is not exactly amazing. He has just one top 30, and it was a T8 two years ago at St. Andrews. The rebuttal to this is obviously that he has never played well at Augusta National, either, and he nearly won there in April. Bryson has improved even more than most believe as a golfer, and he'll play well this week. But that links golf history will certainly be lurking. Odds: 20-1 | |
| 7 | |
| It's Tommy season in Scotland, and nobody has been more of a thrill at Opens more consistently than he (OK, maybe Jordan Spieth). Fleetwood has four top 12s in his last five starts at this event, and it would be a big surprise if he didn't at least work his way into the mix at some point at Royal Troon. The only concern here is that he doesn't have a top 10 anywhere in the world since the Masters. That's a bit misleading, though, because he has five top 25s in that span. Odds: 25-1 | |
| 8 | |
| Big Tone is flying way under the radar right now. I'm not totally sure why, either. He has five consecutive top 20s (including two at majors) and is having arguably the best approach play season of his life. Plus, he thrives at Open Championships with six top 30s in seven appearances. Odds: 45-1 | |
| 9 | |
| Should Hatton actually be in this spot over Spieth or Brooks Koepka or even Viktor Hovland? Tough to say, but he has been playing quite well of late. His last five starts worldwide have resulted in four top 26 finishes, including a T26 at the U.S. Open. His history at The Open is tremendous. He has three top 20s in his last four starts and actually finished in the top five at Royal Troon back in 2016. Odds: 25-1 | |
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