The NFL playoff race usually provides a lot of drama down the stretch, but that might not be the case this year, at least in the AFC.
In the AFC, four of the seven spots have been clinched and by the end of Week 16, there's a chance that all seven spots could be clinched. The Chargers, Broncos and Ravens could clinch the final three spots before the week is over (You can check out their clinching scenarios here).
Although we might not see a lot of drama in the AFC, the NFC could make up for that with three of the divisions still up for grabs (NFC North, NFC South and NFC West). The NFC East is also still technically up for grabs, but the Eagles will need just one more win over the final three weeks to clinch it.
So who's going to make the playoffs? Let's get to our projections and find out.
These projections are based on data from number-cruncher Stephen Oh of SportsLine. Each week, Oh plugs some numbers into his SportsLine computer and simulates the rest of the NFL season. Using those numbers, we then project the 14 teams we expect to make the playoffs.
With that in mind, let's get to the projections heading into Week 16.
AFC playoff projection
1. (AFC West champion) | |
All eyes in Kansas City are on Patrick Mahomes' ankle. If the Chiefs can go just 2-1 over their final two games, that will guarantee them a first-round bye and with Mahomes banged up, a bye would really come in handy at this point. The good news for the Chiefs is that the computer is expecting them to still get the bye despite Mahomes' ankle issue. Remaining opponents: Texans, at Steelers, at Broncos | |
2. (AFC East champion) | |
After thrashing the Lions on Sunday, the Bills (11-3) are now the prohibitive Super Bowl favorite in the eyes of the computer. According to our projection, the Bills have a 19.3% chance of winning it all, which is more than 4% higher than the Chiefs. Remaining opponents: Patriots, Jets, at Patriots | |
3. (AFC North champion) | |
The Steelers (10-4) have a brutal schedule to end the season, but the computer still likes them to win the AFC North. According to our projection, the Steelers have a 73.1% chance of winning the division while Baltimore's chances are sitting at 26.9%. The Steelers could clinch the division as soon as Saturday with a win over the Ravens. Remaining opponents: at Ravens, Chiefs, Bengals | |
4. (AFC South champion) | |
The computer has been predicting all season that the Texans (9-5) would win the division and the computer was proven correct with Houston clinching the AFC South in Week 15. At this point, the Texans will end up with the third or fourth seed, but for now, the computer has them in this spot. Remaining opponents: at Chiefs, Ravens, at Titans | |
5. Wild Card 1 | |
The Ravens (9-5) are essentially a lock for the playoffs. To clinch a postseason berth, all they have to do is win one of their final three games. The Ravens also have a chance to win the AFC North, but as we noted in our Steelers section, the computer doesn't think that's going to happen. Remaining opponents: Steelers, at Texans, Browns | |
6. Wild Card 2 | |
The Broncos (9-5) could clinch a playoff berth as soon as Thursday if they can beat the Chargers. On the other hand, if they lose that game, it could create a scenario where they miss the playoffs entirely. However, the computer doesn't think that's going to happen. According to our projection, the Broncos have a 93.2% chance of getting in. Remaining opponents: at Chargers, at Bengals, Chiefs | |
7. Wild Card 3 | |
The Chargers (8-6) are currently in a free fall with three losses in their past four games. The good news is that the computer doesn't think they're going to suffer a total collapse. According to our projection, the Chargers have a 91.5% chance of making the playoffs. If the Chargers win two of their final three games, they'll clinch a playoff spot no matter what anyone else does. Remaining opponents: Broncos, at Patriots, at Raiders |
Here's a list of the playoff chances for all the other AFC teams (with percentage chance of getting into the playoffs in parentheses): Colts (6.5%), Dolphins (4.6%), Bengals (4.5%), Titans (Eliminated), Browns (Eliminated), Jets (Eliminated), Jaguars (Eliminated), Patriots (Eliminated), Raiders (Eliminated)
AFC wild-card bracket projection
(7) Chargers at (2) Bills
(6) Broncos at (3) Steelers
(5) Ravens at (4) Texans
Bye: Chiefs
NFC playoff projection
1. (NFC East champion) | |
The biggest winner in Week 15 might have been the Eagles. Thanks to Detroit's loss, the computer is now projecting that Philadelphia will steal the No. 1 seed in the NFC. The Eagles can clinch the NFC East as soon as Sunday with a win over the Commanders and they'll have a good chance of clinching the top seed if they win out. Remaining opponents: Commanders, at Cowboys, Giants | |
2. (NFC North champion) | |
Two weeks ago, the Lions (12-2) were the Super Bowl favorite, but now they've been battered by so many injuries that the computer doesn't even view them as one of the top three favorites to win the Lombardi Trophy. According to our projection, the Bills (19.6%), Chiefs (15.1%) and Eagles (12%) all have a higher chance of winning the Super Bowl than Detroit (10.2%). Remaining opponents: at Bears, at 49ers, Vikings | |
3. (NFC West champion) | |
The Rams' (8-6) win in Week 15 combined with Seattle's loss means that Los Angeles now controls its own fate in the NFC West. If the Rams win out, they'll win the division and the computer thinks that's going to happen. According to our projection, the Rams have a 54% chance of winning the division with the Seahawks slightly behind them at 38% and the Cardinals way back at 8%. Remaining opponents: at Jets, Cardinals, Seahawks | |
4. (NFC South champion) | |
The Falcons kept their division title hopes alive with a win on Monday night over the Raiders, but the computer still views the NFC South as the Buccaneers' division to lose. According to our projection, the Bucs have a 77.5% chance of taking home the division title and Atlanta's decision to bench Kirk Cousins in favor of Michael Penix Jr. doesn't really change that. Remaining opponents: at Cowboys, Panthers, Saints | |
5. Wild Card 1 | |
With the Lions' loss on Sunday, the Vikings (12-2) are suddenly in a spot where they could steal the NFC North. If Minnesota wins out, then the Vikings will take home the division title. However, the computer doesn't think that's going to happen. The computer is only giving the Vikings a 28.6% chance of winning the NFC North and that's mostly because the Vikings are tied for the most difficult remaining strength of schedule of any team in the NFL. Remaining opponents: at Seahawks, Packers, at Lions | |
6. Wild Card 2 | |
The Packers (10-4) only have to win one more game over the final three weeks to clinch a playoff berth, so they're basically a lock to make it at this point. The problem for the Packers is that even if they end up with 13 wins, they're still likely going to be stuck with the second wild-card spot in the NFC. Remaining opponents: Saints, at Vikings, Bears. | |
7. Wild Card 3 | |
If there's any drama in the NFC wild-card race, the computer thinks it will come in this spot. The Commanders (9-5) are sitting pretty right now, but they have a difficult game against the Eagles on Sunday. If they lose that, there could potentially be a lot on the line when they face the Falcons in Week 17. As things stand right now, the computer is giving the Commanders an 87% chance of making the playoffs. Remaining opponents: Eagles, Falcons, at Cowboys |
Here's a list of the playoff chances for all the other NFC teams (with percentage chance of getting into the playoffs in parentheses): Seahawks (38.6%), Falcons (27.9%), Cardinals (8.1%), Cowboys (0.2%), 49ers (0.1%), Saints (0.0%), Panthers (Eliminated), Bears (Eliminated), Giants (Eliminated)
NFC wild-card bracket projection
(7) Commanders at (2) Lions
(6) Packers at (3) Rams
(5) Vikings at (4) Buccaneers
Bye: Eagles