The Minnesota Vikings brain trust of general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah and head coach Kevin O'Connell have the biggest choice an NFL team grapples with when building out the roster: what should they do with their starting quarterback position?
Minnesota's 2024 starter, seven-year veteran and 2018 third overall pick of the New York Jets Sam Darnold, is set to hit free agency, after throwing 35 touchdowns in the regular season, tied for the second-most in a season in Vikings history. The team also has J.J. McCarthy waiting in the wings after the 2024 10th overall pick suffered a season-ending knee injury in the preseason.
Fortunately for Adofo-Mensah and O'Connell, CBS Sports NFL analyst Matt Ryan, the 2016 NFL MVP and four-time Pro Bowl quarterback with the Atlanta Falcons, is happy to provide his insight free of charge. He's doing so for a pal in O'Connell since both were a part of the 2008 NFL Draft's quarterback class. Ryan was the first quarterback off the board after being selected third overall by Atlanta, and O'Connell was the fifth quarterback chosen after being taken 94th overall (third round) by the New England Patriots.
"He was the guy in front of me at the combine, man, really. Yeah, he says all the time, I cheated off him on the Wonderlic [test]," Ryan said laughing on the phone on Wednesday. "I don't agree with that, but that's what he says."
There are a number of different paths the Vikings can walk when it comes to this decision. Here are a few potential options:
Vikings' options at QB
- Re-sign Darnold, have McCarthy sit on the bench for a few years (the Green Bay Packers' blueprint)
- Re-sign Darnold and trade McCarthy
- Let Darnold hit free agency and move on to McCarthy
- Franchise tag Darnold for 2025, have McCarthy sit behind him for one more year before turning to him
- Franchise tag Darnold and trade him this offseason and move on to McCarthy for 2025 and beyond
When considering what to do, it's worth nothing Darnold played like a top-10 quarterback for the bulk of the 2024 season, Weeks 1-17. However, he struggled when the lights were brightest in a 31-9 Week 18 loss at the Detroit Lions -- a game that had the stakes of the NFC North division title and the conference's top playoff seed on the line -- and in Minnesota's 27-9 wild-card loss at the Los Angeles Rams. In fact, Darnold's nine sacks taken in the Vikings' postseason loss tied the NFL all-time record for the most times sacked in a playoff game.
Those last two weeks are why Ryan would franchise-tag Darnold to see what the Vikings can squeeze out of teams via trade and then move on to McCarthy.
"Obviously the last two weeks were disappointing," Ryan said. "No. 1 from the Vikings, No. 2 from Sam, but you know, still played a lot of good football throughout the year. I think for that entire building the next step for them is doing it at the end of the year. Doing it when it counts the most at the end of the regular season, doing it as they get into the playoffs and that's the growth and maturation process. If it were me, I'd probably franchise [tag] Sam Darnold, and then buy yourself time to explore all avenues. Whether that is trading [him], and you feel good about J.J. [McCarthy] or that [keeping Darnold] for a year [and then moving on] or whatever that looks like. That [trading him] would probably be the direction that I would go, but I'm not in the building every day. So they would know better than I."
Sam Darnold this season including playoffs | Weeks 1-17* | Week 18 at DET/WC at LAR** |
---|---|---|
W-L | 14-2 (T-2nd) | 0-2 (T-Last) |
Comp Pct | 68.1% (9th) | 53.1% (30th) |
Pass YPG | 259.6 (5th) | 205.5 (22nd) |
Pass Yards/Attempt | 8.2 (4th) | 5.1 (30th) |
TD-INT | 35-12 (10th) | 1-1 (T-21st) |
Passer Rating | 106.4 (5th) | 66.4 (28th) |
Times Sacked | 46 (31st) | 11 (Last) |
Turnovers | 16 (T-29th) | 2 (T-24th) |
* Ranks out of 34 qualified QBs
** Ranks out of 31 QBs with at least 25 pass attempts between Week 18 and the wild-card round of the postseason
What the Vikings do have in their favor in regards to trading Darnold is that there is a significant drop-off after him in terms of the 2025 NFL free agency quarterback options, and there is a similar, steep decline in the 2025 NFL Draft's quarterback class. Miami quarterback Cam Ward (CBS Sports' fourth overall 2025 draft prospect) and Colorado quarterback Shedeur Sanders (CBS Sports' 10th overall 2025 draft prospect) are universally seen as top-10 or even top-five picks. The two teams at the top of the draft -- the Tennessee Titans (first overall) and the Cleveland Browns (second overall) -- both need quarterbacks. After those two prospects, Alabama's Jalen Milroe (CBS Sports' 32nd overall 2025 draft prospect), Texas' Quinn Ewers (CBS Sports' 52nd overall 2025 draft prospect), Ole Miss' Jaxon Dart (CBS Sports' 82nd overall 2025 draft prospect) and Syracuse's Kyle McCord (CBS Sports' 90th overall draft prospect) are the best of the rest.
That means Minnesota could find a robust trade market for Darnold given the New York Giants (third overall pick in 2025 NFL Draft), Las Vegas Raiders (sixth overall pick in 2025 NFL Draft) and the New York Jets (seventh overall pick in 2025 NFL Draft) are all starved for a long-term option at the quarterback position. The time for the Vikings to make their pivotal decision is coming soon with free agency looming in March.